1. Introduction: “Are You Still Only Looking at U.S. Equities?”
For the past 15 years, U.S. stocks have been the “holy grail” for investors worldwide—the only answer that never seemed to fail. However, the market’s current undercurrent is far from ordinary. While the Nasdaq struggles to break through its previous highs and remains trapped in a stagnant, range-bound “no-fun” market, non-U.S. markets, including South Korea, are heating up significantly.
Most notably, the Korean stock market recently achieved an overwhelming return of 25.9%, ranking first among major economies. A clear “decoupling” phenomenon has emerged: even when the U.S. falters, Korea is forging its own path forward. The momentum of the last 15 years—where the U.S. was the only correct answer—is shattering. It is time for a cold, clinical analysis of this massive reallocation of global liquidity, the likes of which we haven’t seen in two decades.
2. [Takeaway 1] The Dawn of a 20-Year “Dollar Bear Market”
The most critical indicator in the current macro environment is neither interest rates nor unemployment—it is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). We must focus on the index itself, which measures the dollar’s value against six major currencies, rather than just the local exchange rate.
As the U.S. administration has signaled a clear preference for a weaker dollar, the DXY has plummeted to its lowest level in four years. What is fascinating is how the current dollar trajectory is uncannily similar to the weak dollar trend seen at the start of the first Trump term.
Bank of America (BofA) Report: The Start of a Dollar Bear Market “The market has entered only the fifth ‘Dollar Bear Market’ since the 1960s. This does not imply a stock market crash, but rather a massive liquidity reshuffling where the dollar value drops more than 20% from its peak. This mirrors the early 2000s, when the dollar crashed 40% following China’s WTO entry, causing non-U.S. equities to skyrocket.”
The reason experts are shouting “Again the 2000s” is clear: once the liquidity trapped within the U.S. begins to burst outward, that capital naturally flows into undervalued emerging markets and commodity sectors, driving up asset prices.
3. [Takeaway 2] The End of U.S. Exceptionalism: Wall Street Giants Pivot
Ed Yardeni, one of Wall Street’s most prominent U.S. stock bulls, recently sent shockwaves through the market. He withdrew his “U.S. Overweight” stance—a position he held unwavering for 15 years since 2010—and recommended increasing portfolio allocations to non-U.S. equities for the first time.
This isn’t a call to sell all U.S. stocks. Rather, it is an acknowledgment that the U.S. share of global market capitalization has reached a critical threshold, soaring from 45% to 65%. From the perspective of “investment difficulty,” the U.S. Big Tech sector has entered a high-difficulty phase where every earnings report is scrutinized under a microscope. Conversely, neglected emerging markets are entering an “easy-click” phase, buoyed by the tailwinds of a weakening dollar. This institutional pivot signals that the “cost-performance of returns” has shifted.
4. [Takeaway 3] Semiconductors & Commodities: The New EM-Led Growth Game
Emerging markets like Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil are the primary beneficiaries of this shifting liquidity. They are currently powered by two formidable engines:
- Semiconductor Shortage: Led by memory giants South Korea (25.9% return) and Taiwan.
- Commodity Supply Crunch: Providing massive opportunities for Latin American nations like Brazil. Notably, the commodity market is at a major turnaround point, ending a downward trend that lasted a staggering 18 years since 2008.
If individual country picking is daunting, a strategy of adjusting weightings via major ETFs like EEM (Emerging Markets ETF) or VWO is highly effective. Instead of clinging to a 100% U.S. portfolio out of 15 years of habit, now is the time to ride the emerging market wave.
5. [Takeaway 4] The New Titans: Energy, Uranium, and Defense
Even within the U.S. market, the “flow of money” is changing. While AI Big Tech stalls under the weight of sky-high expectations, sectors fueled by geopolitical tension and energy crises are hitting new all-time highs.
- Energy (ExxonMobil, Chevron): Energy leaders have broken out of multi-year horizontal ranges. Chevron (CVX), in particular, has escaped a four-year downward trend—a technical inflection point that represents one of the most reliable patterns in the market.
- Uranium (URNM): Due to nuclear fuel shortages, Uranium’s return has outpaced Silver this year. It remains the most promising commodity sector through 2026.
- Defense: With the U.S. Department of Defense approving a 400% (4x) increase in THAAD production, defense majors like Lockheed Martin are securing “contract jackpots” and continuing their record-breaking rallies.
6. Conclusion: Preparing for the 2026 “Super Year”
Statistically, the “January Effect” is a powerful omen; when the market rises in January, the probability of an annual gain exceeds 90%. The positive momentum this January may be the opening act for a massive bull market extending into 2026. Furthermore, 2026 is a “Super Year”, coinciding with significant political events like the U.S. Midterm elections. This is why seasonal adjustments in February should be viewed as prime entry opportunities.
A tectonic shift in the cycle has already begun. In this era of the first major liquidity reorganization in 20 years, what will your choice be?
I leave you with one final question: “Will the ‘All-in on U.S. Big Tech’ strategy that made us rich for 15 years remain valid for the next two? Or is it time to catch the massive wave of emerging markets and commodities that arrives only once every two decades?”
Now is the golden hour to break free from old dogmas and ruthlessly redesign your portfolio.
“I do not recommend buying or selling any stocks. My intention is simply to study together and share the trading strategies I personally consider. Please trade according to your own style, and as you continue your own research, I would appreciate it if you could also share any differing perspectives you may have. I hope we can grow together.”
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