1. The Kevin Warsh Shock: The Misunderstood Essence of the New Fed Chair
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair was the immediate trigger for this crash. While the market fears him as a “grim reaper of tightening,” his true identity is closer to a “Fed Minimalist” or a “Right-wing Dove”.
- Moving Away from the Spotlight: Warsh argues the Fed should stop being the protagonist on the front pages and become a “forgotten institution” focused solely on price stability.
- View on Bitcoin: He views Bitcoin not as a threat, but as a “litmus test” for monetary policy health and a “new gold” for the younger generation.
- Designed Tightening: His nomination dampened excessive market expectations and triggered immediate liquidations in gold and silver as part of a psychological withdrawal of liquidity.
2. Shutdown & the ‘Gold-Killing’ Strategy: A Geopolitical Power Play
It is counterintuitive for gold, a safe-haven asset, to crash during a U.S. government shutdown. Analysts suggest a highly calculated strategy by the Trump administration.
- Neutralizing China: The goal is to defend dollar hegemony by devaluing gold, which China has aggressively stockpiled over the last 5 years.
- Return of the 1934 Gold Reserve Act: Scenarios suggest using executive orders during the shutdown to revalue government-held gold and use the windfall to build a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.
- Shift to Digital Gold: Shaking the old gold system is part of a “cleansing process” to elevate Bitcoin—controlled by U.S. interests—into the realm of true currency.
3. The Technical Line in the Sand: MSTR’s $76,000
The most critical number in the current Bitcoin market is $75,000 – $76,000.
- MSTR’s Cost Basis: MicroStrategy’s average cost is estimated at $75,979. A break below this level could trigger a domino effect of margin calls on collateralized debt.
- Worst-Case Scenario: A technical ‘Head & Shoulders’ pattern suggests a potential drop to $35,000 if the stock market also collapses.
- Liquidity Drought: The surge in TGA (Treasury General Account) balances and the failure of Chicago’s Metropolitan Capital Bank are classic signals of a global liquidity crunch.
[Practical Survival Guide: How to Act Wisely]
When assets collapse, you must protect your mental health before your portfolio.
- Aggressively Eliminate Leverage
- The 30% crash in silver was designed to wipe out leveraged traders.
- Now is not the time to “buy the dip” with leverage, but to pay off debt and build fundamental financial strength.
- Focus on Stable Cash Flow (Dollar Earning)
- Do not be swayed by market noise; focus on creating steady dollar income through your primary and secondary jobs.
- Discard the arrogance that trading is easier than labor. Adopt a “monk-like” discipline by cutting consumption to the bone.
- Build a Hybrid Portfolio Strategy
- Gold (The Shield): No matter how suppressed the price, gold is the ultimate insurance. Maintain 30-40% of your portfolio for protection.
- Bitcoin (The Spear): Endure the volatility of the institutionalization process. Watch the $70,000–$76,000 zone where whales (Binance, Justin Sun) are forming support.
“I do not recommend buying or selling any stocks. My intention is simply to study together and share the trading strategies I personally consider. Please trade according to your own style, and as you continue your own research, I would appreciate it if you could also share any differing perspectives you may have. I hope we can grow together.”
Leave a Reply